Sistan and Baluchestan Province
Probabilities-Informed Machine Learning
As a natural evolution of traditional regression methods [3], ML models such as Support Vector Regression (SVR) [4] and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) [5] have been developed to handle non-linear relationships and highdimensional datasets [6] with increasing accuracy and robustness. For instance, SVR has proven to be a robust regression tool because it can generalize well with limited data and capture nonlinear relationships using kernel functions [7]. Similarly, ANN, inspired by the neural architecture of the human brain, has become foundational to ML [5]. Typically, these methods use inputs (X) and outputs (Y) to construct surrogate models that aim to minimize the difference between the predicted and actual output values. These models have found applications across diverse fields, including engineering, medicine, and economics, demonstrating their versatility and potential [8], [9], [10]. In many real-world applications, additional prior information regarding the output model can be leveraged to enhance its accuracy and robustness [11] [12]. For instance, in physical systems, knowledge of the governing laws of physics has been successfully incorporated into ML by developing physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) [13], leading to improved efficiency and accuracy in prediction tasks [14]. In addition to physical laws, probabilistic information about the structure of the problem may also exist in practical scenarios [15]. Moreover, in many systems, the output variable is inherently probabilistic, necessitating models to approximate the probabilistic structure of the output [16].
Exploring Sentiment Dynamics and Predictive Behaviors in Cryptocurrency Discussions by Few-Shot Learning with Large Language Models
Tash, Moein Shahiki, Ahani, Zahra, Tash, Mohim, Kolesnikova, Olga, Sidorov, Grigori
This study performs analysis of Predictive statements, Hope speech, and Regret Detection behaviors within cryptocurrency-related discussions, leveraging advanced natural language processing techniques. We introduce a novel classification scheme named "Prediction statements," categorizing comments into Predictive Incremental, Predictive Decremental, Predictive Neutral, or Non-Predictive categories. Employing GPT-4o, a cutting-edge large language model, we explore sentiment dynamics across five prominent cryptocurrencies: Cardano, Binance, Matic, Fantom, and Ripple. Our analysis reveals distinct patterns in predictive sentiments, with Matic demonstrating a notably higher propensity for optimistic predictions. Additionally, we investigate hope and regret sentiments, uncovering nuanced interplay between these emotions and predictive behaviors. Despite encountering limitations related to data volume and resource availability, our study reports valuable discoveries concerning investor behavior and sentiment trends within the cryptocurrency market, informing strategic decision-making and future research endeavors.
Prediction of short and long-term droughts using artificial neural networks and hydro-meteorological variables
Hassanzadeh, Yousef, Ghazvinian, Mohammadvaghef, Abdi, Amin, Baharvand, Saman, Jozaghi, Ali
Drought is a natural creeping threat with numerous damaging effects in various aspects of human life. Accurate drought prediction is a promising step in helping policy makers to set drought risk management strategies. To fulfill this purpose, choosing appropriate models plays an important role in predicting approach. In this study, different models of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) are employed to predict short and long-term of droughts by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at different time scales, including 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months in Tabriz city, Iran. To this end, different combination of calculated SPI and time series of various hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, wind velocity, relative humidity and sunshine hours for years 1992 to 2010 are used to train the ANN models. In order to compare the models performances, some well-known measures, namely RMSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Correlation Coefficient (CC) are utilized in the present study. The results illustrate that the application of all hydro-meteorological variables significantly improves the prediction of SPI at different time scales.
DeepLink: A Novel Link Prediction Framework based on Deep Learning
Keikha, Mohammad Mehdi, Rahgozar, Maseud, Asadpour, Masoud
Recently, link prediction has attracted more attentions from various disciplines such as computer science, bioinformatics and economics. In this problem, unknown links between nodes are discovered based on numerous information such as network topology, profile information and user generated contents. Most of the previous researchers have focused on the structural features of the networks. While the recent researches indicate that contextual information can change the network topology. Although, there are number of valuable researches which combine structural and content information, but they face with the scalability issue due to feature engineering. Because, majority of the extracted features are obtained by a supervised or semi supervised algorithm. Moreover, the existing features are not general enough to indicate good performance on different networks with heterogeneous structures. Besides, most of the previous researches are presented for undirected and unweighted networks. In this paper, a novel link prediction framework called "DeepLink" is presented based on deep learning techniques. In contrast to the previous researches which fail to automatically extract best features for the link prediction, deep learning reduces the manual feature engineering. In this framework, both the structural and content information of the nodes are employed. The framework can use different structural feature vectors, which are prepared by various link prediction methods. It considers all proximity orders that are presented in a network during the structural feature learning. We have evaluated the performance of DeepLink on two real social network datasets including Telegram and irBlogs. On both datasets, the proposed framework outperforms several structural and hybrid approaches for link prediction problem.